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FC Komeetat vs KajHa — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

FC Komeetat
FC Komeetat
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
KajHa
KajHa
6/3/2022Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 4Comets Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FC Komeetat40%
×Draw24%
KajHa36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Komeetat
1.59
KajHa
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

FC Komeetat
0.82
KajHa
1.05

allows per match

FC Komeetat
1.91
KajHa
2.36

finishing

FC Komeetat+0.00on par
KajHa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Komeetat ↓

KajHa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Komeetat or draw
64%
FC Komeetat or KajHa
76%
Draw or KajHa
60%

Winning margin

FC Komeetat wins by 2+
20%
KajHa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Komeetat 1+ goals
80%
FC Komeetat 2+ goals
47%
FC Komeetat 3+ goals
21%
KajHa 1+ goals
77%
KajHa 2+ goals
43%
KajHa 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Komeetat (draw refunded)
53%
KajHa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Komeetat at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

KajHa away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Komeetat attack 0.82 + KajHa defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.59

KajHa attack 1.05 + FC Komeetat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Komeetat scores more
40%
level
24%
KajHa scores more
36%

FC Komeetat at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Komeetat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: FC Komeetat 1–1 KajHa

FC Komeetat and KajHa drew 1-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on June 3, 2022.

The match was played at Comets Park in Jyväskylä.