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FC Komeetat vs JBK — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

FC Komeetat
FC Komeetat
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
JBK
JBK
5/22/2022Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 4Comets Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FC Komeetat32%
×Draw24%
JBK44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Komeetat
1.36
JBK
1.65

JBK creates 21% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 86 away

creates per match

FC Komeetat
0.82
JBK
1.38

allows per match

FC Komeetat
1.91
JBK
1.91

finishing

FC Komeetat+0.00on par
JBK+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Komeetat ↓

JBK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Komeetat or draw
56%
FC Komeetat or JBK
76%
Draw or JBK
68%

Winning margin

FC Komeetat wins by 2+
14%
JBK wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

FC Komeetat 1+ goals
74%
FC Komeetat 2+ goals
39%
FC Komeetat 3+ goals
16%
JBK 1+ goals
81%
JBK 2+ goals
49%
JBK 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FC Komeetat (draw refunded)
42%
JBK (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Komeetat at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

JBK away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.91 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Komeetat attack 0.82 + JBK defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.36

JBK attack 1.38 + FC Komeetat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Komeetat scores more
32%
level
24%
JBK scores more
44%

JBK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "JBK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: FC Komeetat 1–2 JBK

JBK beat FC Komeetat 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Comets Park in Jyväskylä.