FC Kangasala 2–0 Ylöjärvi United: Result & Stats

FC Kangasala

2 – 0

Ylöjärvi United

3/23/2025

Suomen Cup · 2nd RoundSuoraman Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Kangasala52%

×Draw19%

Ylöjärvi United29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC KangasalaExpected goals in this matchYlöjärvi United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.92

FC Kangasala

2.58

Ylöjärvi United

1.92

FC Kangasala creates 34% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.83

creates per match

1.33

2.50

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

FC Kangasala

2.83

Ylöjärvi United

1.33

allows per match

FC Kangasala

2.50

Ylöjärvi United

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Kangasala+0.00on par

Ylöjärvi United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Kangasala ↓

Ylöjärvi United →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

FC Kangasala or draw

71%

FC Kangasala or Ylöjärvi United

81%

Draw or Ylöjärvi United

48%

Winning margin

FC Kangasala wins by 2+

33%

Ylöjärvi United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Kangasala 1+ goals

92%

FC Kangasala 2+ goals

72%

FC Kangasala 3+ goals

47%

Ylöjärvi United 1+ goals

85%

Ylöjärvi United 2+ goals

57%

Ylöjärvi United 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

FC Kangasala (draw refunded)

64%

Ylöjärvi United (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC Kangasala at home — creates 2.83, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Ylöjärvi United away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC Kangasala attack 2.83 + Ylöjärvi United defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.58

Ylöjärvi United attack 1.33 + FC Kangasala defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Kangasala scores more

52%

level

19%

Ylöjärvi United scores more

29%

FC Kangasala at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Kangasala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff