Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Kangasala vs TPV — Suomen Cup 2018

FC Kangasala
FC Kangasala
FT
1 – 9
TPV
TPV
3/18/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundKauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Kangasala14%
×Draw13%
TPV73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Kangasala
1.88
TPV
4.13

TPV creates 120% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

FC Kangasala
2.83
TPV
5.75

allows per match

FC Kangasala
2.50
TPV
0.92

finishing

FC Kangasala+0.00on par
TPV+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Kangasala ↓

TPV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–36%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
83%17%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

FC Kangasala or draw
27%
FC Kangasala or TPV
87%
Draw or TPV
86%

Winning margin

FC Kangasala wins by 2+
6%
TPV wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

FC Kangasala 1+ goals
85%
FC Kangasala 2+ goals
56%
FC Kangasala 3+ goals
29%
TPV 1+ goals
98%
TPV 2+ goals
91%
TPV 3+ goals
75%

Draw no bet

FC Kangasala (draw refunded)
16%
TPV (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Kangasala at home — creates 2.83, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

TPV away — creates 5.75, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Kangasala attack 2.83 + TPV defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.88

TPV attack 5.75 + FC Kangasala defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 4.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

FC Kangasala scores more
14%
level
13%
TPV scores more
73%

TPV at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "TPV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: FC Kangasala 1–9 TPV

TPV beat FC Kangasala 9-1 in Suomen Cup on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Kauppi 3 TN in Tampere.