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FC Kangasala vs EIF Akademi — Suomen Cup 2018

FC Kangasala
FC Kangasala
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
EIF Akademi
EIF Akademiadvanced
4/14/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 128

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Kangasala45%
×Draw20%
EIF Akademi35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Kangasala
2.29
EIF Akademi
2.00

FC Kangasala creates 15% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

FC Kangasala
2.83
EIF Akademi
1.50

allows per match

FC Kangasala
2.50
EIF Akademi
1.75

finishing

FC Kangasala+0.00on par
EIF Akademi+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Kangasala ↓

EIF Akademi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

FC Kangasala or draw
65%
FC Kangasala or EIF Akademi
80%
Draw or EIF Akademi
55%

Winning margin

FC Kangasala wins by 2+
27%
EIF Akademi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Kangasala 1+ goals
90%
FC Kangasala 2+ goals
66%
FC Kangasala 3+ goals
40%
EIF Akademi 1+ goals
86%
EIF Akademi 2+ goals
59%
EIF Akademi 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

FC Kangasala (draw refunded)
57%
EIF Akademi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Kangasala at home — creates 2.83, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

EIF Akademi away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Kangasala attack 2.83 + EIF Akademi defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.29

EIF Akademi attack 1.50 + FC Kangasala defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Kangasala scores more
45%
level
20%
EIF Akademi scores more
35%

FC Kangasala at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Kangasala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: FC Kangasala 1–1 EIF Akademi

FC Kangasala and EIF Akademi drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on April 14, 2026.