FC Kaiserslautern 1–1 SV Wehen: Result & Stats

FC Kaiserslautern

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

SV Wehen

F. Kaloč 30'

I. Prtajin 74'

4/20/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 30Fritz-Walter-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

FC Kaiserslautern45%

×Draw24%

SV Wehen31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC KaiserslauternExpected goals in this matchSV Wehen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.36

FC Kaiserslautern

1.70

SV Wehen

1.36

FC Kaiserslautern creates 25% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 36 away

1.87

creates per match

1.31

1.41

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

FC Kaiserslautern

1.87

SV Wehen

1.31

allows per match

FC Kaiserslautern

1.41

SV Wehen

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par

SV Wehen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Kaiserslautern ↓

SV Wehen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Kaiserslautern or draw

69%

FC Kaiserslautern or SV Wehen

76%

Draw or SV Wehen

55%

Winning margin

FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+

24%

SV Wehen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals

82%

FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals

51%

FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals

24%

SV Wehen 1+ goals

74%

SV Wehen 2+ goals

39%

SV Wehen 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)

60%

SV Wehen (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Kaiserslautern at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

SV Wehen away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.87 + SV Wehen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.70

SV Wehen attack 1.31 + FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Kaiserslautern scores more

45%

level

24%

SV Wehen scores more

31%

FC Kaiserslautern at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

F. Kaloč

FC Kaiserslautern · M

7.7

Match Events

30'

36'

40'

40'

45+2'

46'

N. Agrafiotis← L. Günther

64'

T. Goppel← K. Bennetts

66'

B. Zolinski← K. Redondo

66'

D. Abiama← R. Tachie

71'

Nick Bätzner

73'

J. Iredale← N. Bätzner

73'

F. Carstens← S. Mockenhaupt

74'

I. Prtajin↳ G. Fechner

83'

B. Simakala← M. Ritter

90+3'

E. Taffertshofer← M. Mathisen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCSV

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots10

7Corners7

12Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots10

3On Target4

6Off Target4

2Blocked2

8Inside Box5

3Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

401Total Passes416

294Accurate Passes295

73%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

7Offsides2