FC Kaiserslautern 0–2 SpVgg Greuther Furth

FC Kaiserslautern

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

SpVgg Greuther Furth

11/4/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 12Fritz-Walter-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

FC Kaiserslautern48%

×Draw23%

SpVgg Greuther Furth29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC KaiserslauternExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Greuther Furth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.33

FC Kaiserslautern

1.77

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.33

FC Kaiserslautern creates 33% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 120 away

1.87

creates per match

1.25

1.41

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

FC Kaiserslautern

1.87

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.25

allows per match

FC Kaiserslautern

1.41

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Kaiserslautern ↓

SpVgg Greuther Furth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Kaiserslautern or draw

71%

FC Kaiserslautern or SpVgg Greuther Furth

77%

Draw or SpVgg Greuther Furth

52%

Winning margin

FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+

26%

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals

83%

FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals

53%

FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals

26%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals

74%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals

38%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)

62%

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Kaiserslautern at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.68 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.87 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.77

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.25 + FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Kaiserslautern scores more

48%

level

23%

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more

29%

FC Kaiserslautern at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff