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FC Kaiserslautern vs FC Schalke 04 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Kaiserslautern
FC Kaiserslautern
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
1/26/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 19Fritz-Walter-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

FC Kaiserslautern44%
×Draw24%
FC Schalke 0433%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Kaiserslautern
1.67
FC Schalke 04
1.41

FC Kaiserslautern creates 18% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 68 away

creates per match

FC Kaiserslautern
1.87
FC Schalke 04
1.41

allows per match

FC Kaiserslautern
1.41
FC Schalke 04
1.47

finishing

FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par
FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Kaiserslautern ↓

FC Schalke 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Kaiserslautern or draw
67%
FC Kaiserslautern or FC Schalke 04
76%
Draw or FC Schalke 04
56%

Winning margin

FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+
23%
FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals
81%
FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals
50%
FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals
23%
FC Schalke 04 1+ goals
76%
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals
41%
FC Schalke 04 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)
57%
FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Kaiserslautern at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.87 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.67

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.41 + FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Kaiserslautern scores more
44%
level
24%
FC Schalke 04 scores more
33%

FC Kaiserslautern at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: FC Kaiserslautern 4–1 FC Schalke 04

FC Kaiserslautern beat FC Schalke 04 4-1 in 2. Bundesliga on January 26, 2024.

The match was played at Fritz-Walter-Stadion in Kaiserslautern.