FC Kaiserslautern 0–0 Dynamo Dresden

FC Kaiserslautern

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dynamo Dresden

5/20/2022

2. Bundesliga · Relegation RoundFritz-Walter-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

FC Kaiserslautern52%

×Draw23%

Dynamo Dresden25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC KaiserslauternExpected goals in this matchDynamo Dresden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.19

FC Kaiserslautern

1.82

Dynamo Dresden

1.19

FC Kaiserslautern creates 53% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 69 away

1.87

creates per match

0.97

1.41

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

FC Kaiserslautern

1.87

Dynamo Dresden

0.97

allows per match

FC Kaiserslautern

1.41

Dynamo Dresden

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par

Dynamo Dresden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Kaiserslautern ↓

Dynamo Dresden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FC Kaiserslautern or draw

75%

FC Kaiserslautern or Dynamo Dresden

77%

Draw or Dynamo Dresden

48%

Winning margin

FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+

29%

Dynamo Dresden wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals

84%

FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals

54%

FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals

27%

Dynamo Dresden 1+ goals

70%

Dynamo Dresden 2+ goals

33%

Dynamo Dresden 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)

68%

Dynamo Dresden (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Kaiserslautern at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

Dynamo Dresden away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.87 + Dynamo Dresden defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.82

Dynamo Dresden attack 0.97 + FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Kaiserslautern scores more

52%

level

23%

Dynamo Dresden scores more

25%

FC Kaiserslautern at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff