Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Juarez vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

FC Juarez
FC Juarez
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
A. Hurtado 81' (pen)
J. García 39'
D. Campillo 33'
S. Ormeño 12' (pen)
C. Huerta 57'
8/23/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 5Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Juarez41%
×Draw28%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Juarez
1.26
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.06

FC Juarez creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

FC Juarez
1.39
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.21

allows per match

FC Juarez
0.91
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.14

finishing

FC Juarez+0.01on par
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.43scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw
69%
FC Juarez or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
72%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
59%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+
18%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals
72%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
36%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
13%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
65%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
29%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)
57%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.91 · 5 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.39 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.21 + FC Juarez defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Juarez scores more
41%
level
28%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
31%

FC Juarez at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
C. HuertaU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · M
8.6

Match Events

12'
S. OrmeñoPenalty
24'
Adrián Aldrete
28'
Pablo Monroy
30'
Javier Salas
33'
D. Campillo↳ C. Oliva
36'
Luís Rodríguez
39'
J. García↳ C. Oliva
46'
P. Bennevendo← A. Aldrete
46'
J. Dinenno← G. del Prete
54'
A. Hurtado← S. Ormeño
57'
C. Huerta
58'
Alfredo Talavera
59'
F. Nevárez← L. Rodríguez
60'
M. Osuna← J. Salas
68'
M. Hernández← U. Rivas
68'
E. Montejano← G. Fernández
73'
A. Escoto← A. Urzi
73'
Á. Zapata← C. Oliva
78'
Avilés HurtadoPenalty confirmed
81'
A. HurtadoPenalty
85'
C. Gutiérrez← P. Monroy
90+5'
Francisco Nevarez

Possession

36%FC

Shots

12FC

Pass accuracy

45%FC

Statistics

FCU.N.A.M.
Overview
36%Possession64%
12Total Shots19
4Corners5
15Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots19
7On Target8
5Off Target9
0Blocked2
7Inside Box12
5Outside Box7
Passing
36%Possession64%
261Total Passes461
174Accurate Passes380
67%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
7Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls14
4Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Liga MX: FC Juarez 4–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FC Juarez beat U.N.A.M. - Pumas 4-1 in Liga MX on August 23, 2023.

Goals: S. Ormeño (12' pen), D. Campillo (33'), J. García (39'), C. Huerta (57'), A. Hurtado (81' pen).

U.N.A.M. - Pumas controlled possession (64%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez in Ciudad Juárez.