FC Juarez 3–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

FC Juarez

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

A. Medina 90+6'

G. Fernández 41'

J. Dueñas 4'

Diogo 33'

10/1/2022

Liga MX · Apertura - 17Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Juarez41%

×Draw28%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC JuarezExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.06

FC Juarez

1.26

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.06

FC Juarez creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.39

creates per match

1.21

0.91

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

FC Juarez

1.39

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.21

allows per match

FC Juarez

0.91

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.14

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

FC Juarez+0.01on par

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.43scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw

69%

FC Juarez or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

72%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

59%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+

18%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals

72%

FC Juarez 2+ goals

36%

FC Juarez 3+ goals

13%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

65%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

29%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)

57%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.91 · 5 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.39 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.21 + FC Juarez defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Juarez scores more

41%

level

28%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

31%

FC Juarez at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

A. Medina

FC Juarez · M

8.3

Match Events

4'

J. Dueñas↳ A. Medina

18'

Francisco Nevarez

21'

Carlos SalcedoCard reviewed

24'

Leonel López

25'

Juan Dinenno

33'

Diogo

37'

Alejandro Arribas← E. Velázquez

41'

G. Fernández↳ A. Medina

45+1'

Cesar Huerta

46'

Higor Meritão← L. López

61'

V. Alvarado← F. Nevárez

61'

M. Laínez← D. Machís

65'

J. Ruvalcaba← C. Huerta

65'

G. Del Prete← J. Caicedo

67'

Gabriel Fernández

76'

M. García← D. García

83'

C. Gutiérrez← E. Velarde

83'

J. Rodríguez← P. Bennevendo

84'

86'

90'

90'

90'

90'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCU.N.A.M.

Overview

44%Possession56%

10Total Shots26

1Corners6

10Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots26

5On Target8

3Off Target10

2Blocked8

6Inside Box17

4Outside Box9

Passing

44%Possession56%

276Total Passes335

212Accurate Passes279

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls17

3Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0

Liga MX: FC Juarez 3–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FC Juarez beat U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-1 in Liga MX on October 1, 2022.

Goals: J. Dueñas (4'), Diogo (33'), G. Fernández (41'), A. Medina (90+6').

U.N.A.M. - Pumas controlled possession (56%) and registered 26 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez in Ciudad Juárez.

FC Juarez vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga MX: FC Juarez 3–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas