FC Juarez 4–4 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

FC Juarez

FT

4 – 4

HT: 3 – 2

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

B. Rubio 78'

D. Rolan 26' (pen)

D. Lezcano 17', 11'

C. González 59'

F. Álvarez 49'

A. Iniestra 39'

J. Vigón 15'

1/17/2020

Liga MX · Clausura - 2Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Juarez38%

×Draw29%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC JuarezExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.08

FC Juarez

1.19

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.08

FC Juarez creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.25

creates per match

1.21

0.96

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

FC Juarez

1.25

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.21

allows per match

FC Juarez

0.96

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.14

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

FC Juarez+0.42scores more

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.43scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw

67%

FC Juarez or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

71%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

62%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+

16%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals

70%

FC Juarez 2+ goals

33%

FC Juarez 3+ goals

12%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

66%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

29%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)

54%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.96 · 6 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.25 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.21 + FC Juarez defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Juarez scores more

38%

level

29%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

33%

FC Juarez at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

F. Álvarez

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · F

8.6

Match Events

11'

D. Lezcano↳ M. Fernández

15'

J. Vigón↳ F. Álvarez

17'

D. Lezcano↳ I. Jiménez

25'

Alejandro Mayorga

26'

D. RolanPenalty

30'

Johan Vásquez

39'

A. Iniestra

46'

I. Malcorra← M. Mayorga

49'

F. Álvarez↳ A. Iniestra

56'

José Rodríguez

59'

C. González↳ P. Barrera

63'

Á. Sagal← M. Fernández

64'

W. Mendieta← F. Santos

68'

Alan Mozo

76'

Diego Rolán

77'

B. Rubio← J. Esquivel

78'

B. Rubio

87'

B. Mendoza← S. Saucedo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCU.N.A.M.

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots17

3Corners8

15Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots17

7On Target5

3Off Target7

0Blocked5

8Inside Box9

2Outside Box8

Passing

47%Possession53%

320Total Passes347

247Accurate Passes267

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1