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FC Juarez vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2026

FC Juarez
FC Juarez
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
9/23/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 9Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

FC Juarez33%
×Draw27%
Tigres UANL40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Juarez
1.19
Tigres UANL
1.32

Tigres UANL creates 11% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 157 away

creates per match

FC Juarez
1.26
Tigres UANL
1.25

allows per match

FC Juarez
1.39
Tigres UANL
1.13

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par
Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw
60%
FC Juarez or Tigres UANL
73%
Draw or Tigres UANL
67%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+
14%
Tigres UANL wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals
70%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
33%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
12%
Tigres UANL 1+ goals
73%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
38%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)
46%
Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.26 + Tigres UANL defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Tigres UANL attack 1.25 + FC Juarez defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Juarez scores more
33%
level
27%
Tigres UANL scores more
40%

Tigres UANL at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Juarez vs Tigres UANL

Tigres UANL beat FC Juarez 1-0 in Liga MX on September 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez in Ciudad Juárez.