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FC Juarez vs Tampico Madero — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

FC Juarez
FC Juarez
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tampico Madero
Tampico Madero
8/19/2018Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 5Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez (Ciudad Juárez)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Juarez50%
×Draw28%
Tampico Madero22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Juarez
1.38
Tampico Madero
0.82

FC Juarez creates 68% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 64 away

creates per match

FC Juarez
1.58
Tampico Madero
0.91

allows per match

FC Juarez
0.74
Tampico Madero
1.17

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par
Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

Tampico Madero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw
78%
FC Juarez or Tampico Madero
72%
Draw or Tampico Madero
50%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+
24%
Tampico Madero wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals
75%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
40%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
16%
Tampico Madero 1+ goals
56%
Tampico Madero 2+ goals
20%
Tampico Madero 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)
69%
Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Tampico Madero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.58 + Tampico Madero defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.38

Tampico Madero attack 0.91 + FC Juarez defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Juarez scores more
50%
level
28%
Tampico Madero scores more
22%

FC Juarez at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Juarez vs Tampico Madero

FC Juarez and Tampico Madero drew 0-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 19, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez (Ciudad Juárez).