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FC Juarez vs Potros Uaem — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

FC Juarez
FC Juarez
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Potros Uaem
Potros Uaem
3/11/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 11Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez (Ciudad Juárez)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FC Juarez51%
×Draw28%
Potros Uaem22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Juarez
1.38
Potros Uaem
0.80

FC Juarez creates 72% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

FC Juarez
1.56
Potros Uaem
0.85

allows per match

FC Juarez
0.75
Potros Uaem
1.20

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par
Potros Uaem+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

Potros Uaem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw
78%
FC Juarez or Potros Uaem
72%
Draw or Potros Uaem
49%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+
25%
Potros Uaem wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals
75%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
40%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
16%
Potros Uaem 1+ goals
55%
Potros Uaem 2+ goals
19%
Potros Uaem 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)
70%
Potros Uaem (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Potros Uaem away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.56 + Potros Uaem defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.38

Potros Uaem attack 0.85 + FC Juarez defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Juarez scores more
51%
level
28%
Potros Uaem scores more
22%

FC Juarez at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Juarez vs Potros Uaem

FC Juarez and Potros Uaem drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 11, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez (Ciudad Juárez).