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FC Juarez vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

FC Juarez
FC Juarez
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Necaxa
Necaxa
E. Castillo 61'
8/1/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 2Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

FC Juarez41%
×Draw25%
Necaxa34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Juarez
1.48
Necaxa
1.32

FC Juarez creates 12% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 139 away

creates per match

FC Juarez
1.26
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

FC Juarez
1.38
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw
66%
FC Juarez or Necaxa
75%
Draw or Necaxa
59%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+
20%
Necaxa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals
77%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
43%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
19%
Necaxa 1+ goals
73%
Necaxa 2+ goals
38%
Necaxa 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)
55%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.38 · 118 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.26 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Necaxa attack 1.27 + FC Juarez defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Juarez scores more
41%
level
25%
Necaxa scores more
34%

FC Juarez at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
L. MalagónNecaxaNecaxa · G
7.8

Match Events

20'
Joao Rodríguez
45'
Flavio Santos
45'
Luis López
46'
E. Castillo← F. Santos
49'
F. Nevarez← M. Fernández
55'
Ricardo Chávez
59'
Jairo González
61'
E. Castillo
62'
Luis López
62'
Luis López
73'
M. Barragán← D. Cabrera
73'
J. Cobián← J. Rodríguez
73'
R. Sandoval← Jairo González
80'
O. Millán← R. Chávez
81'
Ian González← M. Salas
83'
Maximiliano Olivera
90'
J. Esquivel← A. Mendoza

Possession

40%FC

Shots

8FC

Pass accuracy

47%FC

Statistics

FCNecaxa
Overview
40%Possession60%
8Total Shots10
4Corners1
13Fouls21
Shots
8Total Shots10
5On Target4
3Off Target5
0Blocked1
7Inside Box6
1Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
254Total Passes375
181Accurate Passes301
71%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls21
4Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Liga MX: FC Juarez 1–0 Necaxa

FC Juarez beat Necaxa 1-0 in Liga MX on August 1, 2020.

Goals: E. Castillo (61').

Necaxa controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez in Ciudad Juárez.