FC Juarez 3–4 Cruz Azul: Result & Stats | Liga MX

FC Juarez

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Cruz Azul

1/31/2026

Liga MX · Clausura - 4Estadio Olimpico Benito Juarez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

FC Juarez34%

×Draw26%

Cruz Azul39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC JuarezExpected goals in this matchCruz Azul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.35

FC Juarez

1.24

Cruz Azul

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 157 away

1.26

creates per match

1.32

1.39

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

FC Juarez

1.26

Cruz Azul

1.32

allows per match

FC Juarez

1.39

Cruz Azul

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par

Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

Cruz Azul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw

61%

FC Juarez or Cruz Azul

74%

Draw or Cruz Azul

66%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+

15%

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals

71%

FC Juarez 2+ goals

35%

FC Juarez 3+ goals

13%

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

74%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

39%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)

47%

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.26 + Cruz Azul defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.24

Cruz Azul attack 1.32 + FC Juarez defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Juarez scores more

34%

level

26%

Cruz Azul scores more

39%

Cruz Azul at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff