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FC Juarez vs Club America — Liga MX 2026

FC Juarez
FC Juarez
Preview
03:00
Club America
Club America
8/22/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 5
Big match
43%
Club America
model favours
31%26%43%

Club America score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

FC Juarez31%
×Draw26%
Club America43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Juarez
1.20
Club America
1.47

Club America creates 23% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 163 away

creates per match

FC Juarez
1.26
Club America
1.55

allows per match

FC Juarez
1.39
Club America
1.14

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par
Club America+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

Club America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw
57%
FC Juarez or Club America
74%
Draw or Club America
69%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+
13%
Club America wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals
70%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
34%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
12%
Club America 1+ goals
77%
Club America 2+ goals
43%
Club America 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)
42%
Club America (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

Club America away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 163 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.26 + Club America defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Club America attack 1.55 + FC Juarez defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Juarez scores more
31%
level
26%
Club America scores more
43%

Club America at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Club America have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • 30% of Club America’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
FC Juarez
Balanced
Club America
Possession-dominant
46%PossessionBiggest gap57%
80%Pass accuracy86%
12.6Shots13.7
1.56xG1.40
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FC JuarezClub America

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
FC Juarez
1
Draws
7
Club America
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 60%
2–11–10–41–20–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Juarez
LDWDW
America
WLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Juarez vs Club America — Match Preview

FC Juarez face Club America on August 22, 2026 in this Liga MX fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.