Club America 4–0 FC Juarez: Result & Stats

Club America

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

FC Juarez

2/1/2025

Liga MX · Clausura - 5Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Club America59%

×Draw23%

FC Juarez19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club AmericaExpected goals in this matchFC Juarez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.92

Club America

1.83

FC Juarez

0.92

Club America creates 99% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 119 away

1.89

creates per match

0.94

0.89

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Club America

1.89

FC Juarez

0.94

allows per match

Club America

0.89

FC Juarez

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club America+0.00on par

FC Juarez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club America ↓

FC Juarez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Club America or draw

81%

Club America or FC Juarez

77%

Draw or FC Juarez

41%

Winning margin

Club America wins by 2+

34%

FC Juarez wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Club America 1+ goals

84%

Club America 2+ goals

54%

Club America 3+ goals

28%

FC Juarez 1+ goals

60%

FC Juarez 2+ goals

23%

FC Juarez 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Club America (draw refunded)

76%

FC Juarez (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club America at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 161 matches

FC Juarez away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.77 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club America attack 1.89 + FC Juarez defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.83

FC Juarez attack 0.94 + Club America defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Club America scores more

59%

level

23%

FC Juarez scores more

19%

Club America at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Club America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff