FC jazz 1–1 Turku PS: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

FC jazz

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Turku PS

C. Campagna 14'

A. Ulmanen 64'

5/9/2024

Suomen Cup · 4th RoundPorin Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC jazz32%

×Draw21%

Turku PS48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC jazzExpected goals in this matchTurku PS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.15

FC jazz

1.73

Turku PS

2.15

Turku PS creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

2.29

creates per match

2.00

2.29

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

FC jazz

2.29

Turku PS

2.00

allows per match

FC jazz

2.29

Turku PS

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC jazz+0.00on par

Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC jazz ↓

Turku PS →

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

FC jazz or draw

52%

FC jazz or Turku PS

79%

Draw or Turku PS

68%

Winning margin

FC jazz wins by 2+

16%

Turku PS wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

FC jazz 1+ goals

82%

FC jazz 2+ goals

52%

FC jazz 3+ goals

25%

Turku PS 1+ goals

88%

Turku PS 2+ goals

63%

Turku PS 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

FC jazz (draw refunded)

40%

Turku PS (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FC jazz at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Turku PS away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FC jazz attack 2.29 + Turku PS defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.73

Turku PS attack 2.00 + FC jazz defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC jazz scores more

32%

level

21%

Turku PS scores more

48%

Turku PS at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

24'

29'

44'

46'

J. Karlsson← L. Ikonen

47'

O. Helen

62'

E. Nieminen← J. Lehto

62'

A. Muzaci← O. Helen

62'

A. Sihvonen← B. Mensah

64'

A. Ulmanen

68'

O. Haggstrom

78'

90+5'

90+5'

Turku

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: V. Ulanen

62'▲E. Nieminen←▼J. Lehto

FC jazz substitutes

NieminenLuhtanenLamminenMerveläLeivo-JokimäkiPuustinenJokinen

Manager: M. Nuutinen

46'▲J. Karlsson←▼L. Ikonen

62'▲A. Muzaci←▼O. Helen

62'▲A. Sihvonen←▼B. Mensah

Turku PS substitutes

KarlssonMuzaciSihvonenSoiniemiHakanpääPippola