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FC jazz vs SexyPöxyt — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

FC jazz
FC jazz
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
SexyPöxyt
SexyPöxyt
6/8/2023Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 7Porin Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

FC jazz64%
×Draw18%
SexyPöxyt18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC jazz
2.58
SexyPöxyt
1.34

FC jazz creates 93% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 21 away

creates per match

FC jazz
2.25
SexyPöxyt
1.24

allows per match

FC jazz
1.44
SexyPöxyt
2.90

finishing

FC jazz+0.00on par
SexyPöxyt+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC jazz ↓

SexyPöxyt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

FC jazz or draw
82%
FC jazz or SexyPöxyt
82%
Draw or SexyPöxyt
36%

Winning margin

FC jazz wins by 2+
42%
SexyPöxyt wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC jazz 1+ goals
92%
FC jazz 2+ goals
72%
FC jazz 3+ goals
47%
SexyPöxyt 1+ goals
74%
SexyPöxyt 2+ goals
39%
SexyPöxyt 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC jazz (draw refunded)
77%
SexyPöxyt (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC jazz at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.44 · 64 matches

SexyPöxyt away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC jazz attack 2.25 + SexyPöxyt defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.58

SexyPöxyt attack 1.24 + FC jazz defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FC jazz scores more
64%
level
18%
SexyPöxyt scores more
18%

FC jazz at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FC jazz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: FC jazz 6–0 SexyPöxyt

FC jazz beat SexyPöxyt 6-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on June 8, 2023.

The match was played at Porin Stadion in Pori.