FC jazz 4–2 I-Kissat: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

FC jazz

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

I-Kissat

4/29/2023

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundHerralahti tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC jazz35%

×Draw19%

I-Kissat46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC jazzExpected goals in this matchI-Kissat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

2.48

FC jazz

2.15

I-Kissat

2.48

I-Kissat creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

2.29

creates per match

2.67

2.29

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

FC jazz

2.29

I-Kissat

2.67

allows per match

FC jazz

2.29

I-Kissat

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC jazz+0.00on par

I-Kissat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC jazz ↓

I-Kissat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

FC jazz or draw

54%

FC jazz or I-Kissat

81%

Draw or I-Kissat

65%

Winning margin

FC jazz wins by 2+

19%

I-Kissat wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

FC jazz 1+ goals

88%

FC jazz 2+ goals

63%

FC jazz 3+ goals

36%

I-Kissat 1+ goals

92%

I-Kissat 2+ goals

70%

I-Kissat 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

FC jazz (draw refunded)

43%

I-Kissat (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC jazz at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

I-Kissat away — creates 2.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC jazz attack 2.29 + I-Kissat defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

I-Kissat attack 2.67 + FC jazz defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC jazz scores more

35%

level

19%

I-Kissat scores more

46%

I-Kissat at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "I-Kissat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff