FC jazz 0–4 Gnistan: Result & Stats

FC jazz

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Gnistan

5/4/2019

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Round 1Porin Urheilukeskus tn (Pori)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FC jazz26%

×Draw21%

Gnistan53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC jazzExpected goals in this matchGnistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

2.08

FC jazz

1.40

Gnistan

2.08

Gnistan creates 49% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 11 away

2.25

creates per match

2.73

1.44

allows per match

0.55

creates per match

FC jazz

2.25

Gnistan

2.73

allows per match

FC jazz

1.44

Gnistan

0.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC jazz+0.00on par

Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC jazz ↓

Gnistan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

FC jazz or draw

47%

FC jazz or Gnistan

79%

Draw or Gnistan

74%

Winning margin

FC jazz wins by 2+

11%

Gnistan wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

FC jazz 1+ goals

75%

FC jazz 2+ goals

41%

FC jazz 3+ goals

17%

Gnistan 1+ goals

87%

Gnistan 2+ goals

61%

Gnistan 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

FC jazz (draw refunded)

33%

Gnistan (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC jazz at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.44 · 64 matches

Gnistan away — creates 2.73, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC jazz attack 2.25 + Gnistan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Gnistan attack 2.73 + FC jazz defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC jazz scores more

26%

level

21%

Gnistan scores more

53%

Gnistan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gnistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff