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FC Isloch Minsk R. vs Ruh Brest — Premier League 2018

FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
4/10/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Stadion FK Minsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FC Isloch Minsk R.35%
×Draw26%
Ruh Brest39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.28
Ruh Brest
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 29 away

creates per match

FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.40
Ruh Brest
1.76

allows per match

FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.96
Ruh Brest
1.17

finishing

FC Isloch Minsk R.+0.00on par
Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Isloch Minsk R. ↓

Ruh Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Isloch Minsk R. or draw
61%
FC Isloch Minsk R. or Ruh Brest
74%
Draw or Ruh Brest
65%

Winning margin

FC Isloch Minsk R. wins by 2+
15%
Ruh Brest wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Isloch Minsk R. 1+ goals
72%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 2+ goals
37%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 3+ goals
14%
Ruh Brest 1+ goals
74%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
39%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Isloch Minsk R. (draw refunded)
47%
Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Isloch Minsk R. at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.96 · 124 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Isloch Minsk R. attack 1.40 + Ruh Brest defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Ruh Brest attack 1.76 + FC Isloch Minsk R. defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Isloch Minsk R. scores more
35%
level
26%
Ruh Brest scores more
39%

Ruh Brest at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Isloch Minsk R. vs Ruh Brest

Ruh Brest beat FC Isloch Minsk R. 1-0 in Premier League on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Minsk in Minsk.