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FC Isloch Minsk R. vs Naftan — Premier League 2018

FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Naftan
Naftan
E. Yudchits 51'
G. Rovdo 45+1'
M. Kovel 39'
10/27/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Stadyen Haradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FC Isloch Minsk R.55%
×Draw24%
Naftan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.69
Naftan
0.95

FC Isloch Minsk R. creates 78% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 51 away

creates per match

FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.44
Naftan
0.94

allows per match

FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.96
Naftan
1.94

finishing

FC Isloch Minsk R.+0.00on par
Naftan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Isloch Minsk R. ↓

Naftan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Isloch Minsk R. or draw
79%
FC Isloch Minsk R. or Naftan
76%
Draw or Naftan
45%

Winning margin

FC Isloch Minsk R. wins by 2+
30%
Naftan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Isloch Minsk R. 1+ goals
82%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 2+ goals
50%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 3+ goals
24%
Naftan 1+ goals
61%
Naftan 2+ goals
25%
Naftan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Isloch Minsk R. (draw refunded)
72%
Naftan (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Isloch Minsk R. at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Naftan away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Isloch Minsk R. attack 1.44 + Naftan defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.69

Naftan attack 0.94 + FC Isloch Minsk R. defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC Isloch Minsk R. scores more
55%
level
24%
Naftan scores more
21%

FC Isloch Minsk R. at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC Isloch Minsk R. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
M. Kovel
41'
Mikhail Kolyadko
45+1'
G. Rovdo
46'
M. Yallet← A. Shchadin
51'
E. Yudchits
55'
Khetag Badoev 
62'
A. Suchkov← A. Drabatovich
62'
J. Lopago← M. Zhitnev
64'
Y. Kravchenko← M. Kobeev
68'
Kirill Gomanov
73'
A. Litvinov← K. Badoev
79'
V. Senko← G. Rovdo
82'
Fard Ibrahim
83'
Roman Papariga
86'
I. Tikhomirov← V. Bulmaga
86'
V. Zhuravlev← F. Ibrahim
87'
R. Medvedev← A. Butko
88'
Maksim Kovel

Statistics

FCNaftan
Discipline
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Premier League: FC Isloch Minsk R. 3–0 Naftan

FC Isloch Minsk R. beat Naftan 3-0 in Premier League on October 27, 2024.

Goals: M. Kovel (39'), G. Rovdo (45+1'), E. Yudchits (51').

The match was played at Stadyen Haradski in Molodechno.