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FC Isloch Minsk R. vs FC Vitebsk — Coppa 2026

FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebskadvanced
3/9/2024CoppaCoppa · Quarter-finalsStadyen Dynama-Juni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Isloch Minsk R.33%
×Draw32%
FC Vitebsk35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.95
FC Vitebsk
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

creates per match

FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.83
FC Vitebsk
1.63

allows per match

FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.33
FC Vitebsk
1.06

finishing

FC Isloch Minsk R.+0.00on par
FC Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Isloch Minsk R. ↓

FC Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

FC Isloch Minsk R. or draw
65%
FC Isloch Minsk R. or FC Vitebsk
68%
Draw or FC Vitebsk
67%

Winning margin

FC Isloch Minsk R. wins by 2+
12%
FC Vitebsk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Isloch Minsk R. 1+ goals
61%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 2+ goals
25%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 3+ goals
7%
FC Vitebsk 1+ goals
62%
FC Vitebsk 2+ goals
26%
FC Vitebsk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Isloch Minsk R. (draw refunded)
49%
FC Vitebsk (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Isloch Minsk R. at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

FC Vitebsk away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Isloch Minsk R. attack 0.83 + FC Vitebsk defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.95

FC Vitebsk attack 1.63 + FC Isloch Minsk R. defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

FC Isloch Minsk R. scores more
33%
level
32%
FC Vitebsk scores more
35%

FC Vitebsk at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "FC Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Isloch Minsk R. vs FC Vitebsk

FC Vitebsk beat FC Isloch Minsk R. 2-0 in Coppa on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Dynama-Juni in Minsk.