FC Isloch Minsk R. 0–4 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

FC Isloch Minsk R.

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

11/28/2021

Premier League · Round 30Stadyen Haradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

FC Isloch Minsk R.44%

×Draw26%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Isloch Minsk R.Expected goals in this matchFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.15

FC Isloch Minsk R.

1.46

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

1.15

FC Isloch Minsk R. creates 27% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 74 away

1.40

creates per match

1.34

0.96

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

FC Isloch Minsk R.

1.40

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

1.34

allows per match

FC Isloch Minsk R.

0.96

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Isloch Minsk R.+0.00on par

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Isloch Minsk R. ↓

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FC Isloch Minsk R. or draw

70%

FC Isloch Minsk R. or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

74%

Draw or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

56%

Winning margin

FC Isloch Minsk R. wins by 2+

22%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Isloch Minsk R. 1+ goals

77%

FC Isloch Minsk R. 2+ goals

43%

FC Isloch Minsk R. 3+ goals

18%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1+ goals

68%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 2+ goals

32%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Isloch Minsk R. (draw refunded)

60%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Isloch Minsk R. at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.96 · 124 matches

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.51 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Isloch Minsk R. attack 1.40 + FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk attack 1.34 + FC Isloch Minsk R. defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Isloch Minsk R. scores more

44%

level

26%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk scores more

30%

FC Isloch Minsk R. at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Isloch Minsk R. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff