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FC Inter Wanica vs Flora Tallinn — Eerste Divisie 2019

FC Inter Wanica
FC Inter Wanica
FT
1 – 1
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
5/6/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 15Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Inter Wanica34%
×Draw21%
Flora Tallinn45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Inter Wanica
1.72
Flora Tallinn
2.00

Flora Tallinn creates 16% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 12 away

creates per match

FC Inter Wanica
1.19
Flora Tallinn
1.33

allows per match

FC Inter Wanica
2.67
Flora Tallinn
2.25

finishing

FC Inter Wanica+0.00on par
Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Inter Wanica ↓

Flora Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

FC Inter Wanica or draw
55%
FC Inter Wanica or Flora Tallinn
79%
Draw or Flora Tallinn
66%

Winning margin

FC Inter Wanica wins by 2+
17%
Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

FC Inter Wanica 1+ goals
82%
FC Inter Wanica 2+ goals
51%
FC Inter Wanica 3+ goals
25%
Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
86%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
59%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

FC Inter Wanica (draw refunded)
43%
Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Inter Wanica at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.67 · 57 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Inter Wanica attack 1.19 + Flora Tallinn defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.72

Flora Tallinn attack 1.33 + FC Inter Wanica defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Inter Wanica scores more
34%
level
21%
Flora Tallinn scores more
45%

Flora Tallinn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Flora Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: FC Inter Wanica 1–1 Flora Tallinn

FC Inter Wanica and Flora Tallinn drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.