FC Ingolstadt 04 2–4 Werder Bremen: Result & Stats

FC Ingolstadt 04

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Werder Bremen

P. Groß 62' (pen)

D. Lezcano 32'

M. Kruse 90+4', 87', 81', 45+1' (pen)

4/22/2017

Bundesliga · Round 30Audi Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0445%

×Draw24%

Werder Bremen32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Ingolstadt 04Expected goals in this matchWerder Bremen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.40

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.70

Werder Bremen

1.40

FC Ingolstadt 04 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 103 away

1.60

creates per match

1.40

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.60

Werder Bremen

1.40

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.40

Werder Bremen

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Werder Bremen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

Werder Bremen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw

68%

FC Ingolstadt 04 or Werder Bremen

76%

Draw or Werder Bremen

55%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+

23%

Werder Bremen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals

82%

FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals

51%

FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals

24%

Werder Bremen 1+ goals

75%

Werder Bremen 2+ goals

41%

Werder Bremen 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)

58%

Werder Bremen (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Werder Bremen away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.79 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.60 + Werder Bremen defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.70

Werder Bremen attack 1.40 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more

45%

level

24%

Werder Bremen scores more

32%

FC Ingolstadt 04 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Kruse

Werder Bremen · F

10.0

Match Events

32'

D. Lezcano↳ M. Tisserand

45'

Marcel Tisserand

45+1'

M. KrusePenalty

50'

Niklas Moisander

62'

P. GroßPenalty

64'

Lamine Sané

67'

S. Gnabry← M. Veljkovic

67'

C. Pizarro← F. Grillitsch

70'

Max Christiansen

75'

L. Hinterseer← M. Christiansen

78'

81'

85'

87'

89'

P. Bargfrede← F. Kainz

90+4'

M. Kruse↳ F. Bartels

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCWerder

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots10

9Corners2

16Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots10

5On Target5

8Off Target5

2Blocked0

8Inside Box9

7Outside Box1

Passing

48%Possession52%

375Total Passes420

253Accurate Passes306

67%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

3Offsides4