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FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Ried — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ried
Ried
Y. Sturm 90'
M. Plath 83'
J. Kugel 69'
M. Costly 29'
J. Mayer 61'
P. Kiedl 41'
1/9/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0452%
×Draw22%
Ried26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.94
Ried
1.31

FC Ingolstadt 04 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.46
Ried
1.25

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.38
Ried
2.42

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par
Ried+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

Ried →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw
74%
FC Ingolstadt 04 or Ried
78%
Draw or Ried
48%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
30%
Ried wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
86%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
58%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
30%
Ried 1+ goals
73%
Ried 2+ goals
38%
Ried 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
67%
Ried (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Ried away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.46 + Ried defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.94

Ried attack 1.25 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
52%
level
22%
Ried scores more
26%

FC Ingolstadt 04 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
M. Costly
41'
P. Kiedl
61'
J. Mayer
69'
J. Kugel
83'
M. Plath
90'
Y. Sturm
FC
Ried
Sabrina Wittmann
Manager: Sabrina Wittmann
Maximilian Senft
Manager: Maximilian Senft

Match Recap: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Ried

FC Ingolstadt 04 beat Ried 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 9, 2026.

Goals: M. Costly (29'), P. Kiedl (41'), J. Mayer (61'), J. Kugel (69'), M. Plath (83'), Y. Sturm (90').