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FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Holstein Kiel — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
S. Kutschke 46'
B. Pichler 13'
10/16/20212. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 10Audi-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0434%
×Draw25%
Holstein Kiel41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.34
Holstein Kiel
1.51

Holstein Kiel creates 13% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 107 away

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.21
Holstein Kiel
1.60

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.42
Holstein Kiel
1.48

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par
Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

Holstein Kiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw
59%
FC Ingolstadt 04 or Holstein Kiel
75%
Draw or Holstein Kiel
66%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
15%
Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
74%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
39%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
15%
Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
78%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
44%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
45%
Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 62 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.48 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.21 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Holstein Kiel attack 1.60 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
34%
level
25%
Holstein Kiel scores more
41%

Holstein Kiel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
M. GausFC Ingolstadt 04FC Ingolstadt 04 · D
7.9

Match Events

13'
B. Pichler↳ M. Kirkeskov
31'
Rico Preißinger
45'
Benedikt Pichler
46'
C. Gebauer← M. Heinloth
46'
S. Kutschke↳ M. Gaus
60'
S. Skrzybski← B. Pichler
69'
Dennis Eckert Ayensa
69'
Stefan Thesker
78'
F. Reese← M. Benger
81'
Denis Linsmayer
82'
M. Röhl← R. Preißinger
85'
Stefan Kutschke
87'
L. Holtby← F. Bartels
90'
F. Cavadias← F. Bilbija
90+1'
F. Kaya← D. Eckert

Possession

50%FC

Shots

15FC

Pass accuracy

50%FC

Statistics

FCHolstein
Overview
50%Possession50%
15Total Shots7
5Corners3
10Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots7
3On Target1
7Off Target3
5Blocked3
10Inside Box4
5Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
422Total Passes429
318Accurate Passes318
75%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls13
4Yellow Cards2

2. Bundesliga: FC Ingolstadt 04 1–1 Holstein Kiel

FC Ingolstadt 04 and Holstein Kiel drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on October 16, 2021.

Goals: B. Pichler (13'), S. Kutschke (46').

FC Ingolstadt 04 controlled possession (50%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Audi-Sportpark in Ingolstadt.