FC Ingolstadt 04 1–1 Dynamo Dresden: Result & Stats

FC Ingolstadt 04

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dynamo Dresden

M. Besuschkow 43'

J. Oehmichen 58'

11/2/2024

League #80 · Round 13Audi-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0450%

×Draw23%

Dynamo Dresden27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Ingolstadt 04Expected goals in this matchDynamo Dresden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.31

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.84

Dynamo Dresden

1.31

FC Ingolstadt 04 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 7 away

2.11

creates per match

1.29

1.32

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04

2.11

Dynamo Dresden

1.29

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.32

Dynamo Dresden

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Dynamo Dresden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

Dynamo Dresden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw

73%

FC Ingolstadt 04 or Dynamo Dresden

77%

Draw or Dynamo Dresden

50%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+

28%

Dynamo Dresden wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals

84%

FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals

55%

FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals

28%

Dynamo Dresden 1+ goals

73%

Dynamo Dresden 2+ goals

38%

Dynamo Dresden 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)

65%

Dynamo Dresden (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Dynamo Dresden away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 2.11 + Dynamo Dresden defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.84

Dynamo Dresden attack 1.29 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more

50%

level

23%

Dynamo Dresden scores more

27%

FC Ingolstadt 04 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

17'

30'

42'

43'

46'

R. Meißner← C. Daferner

46'

L. Bünning← C. Kammerknecht

51'

58'

65'

65'

69'

B. Kanurić← Y. Deichmann

69'

D. Borkowski← D. Zeitler

74'

80'

81'

85'

90+6'

90+5'

FC4-4-2

Dynamo4-1-4-1

33

▼

Daferner

7

Meier

25

⚽

Oehmichen

17

▼

Casar

10

Lemmer

5

Šapina

28

▼

Risch

29

Boeder

15

▼

Kammerkne

32

▼

1

1

43

32

19

22

29

▼

Kopacz

17

⚽

Besuschko

34

Fröde

20

▼

Deichmann

11

Grønning

38

▼

Zeitler

Manager: S. Wittmann

69'▲B. Kanurić←▼Y. Deichmann

69'▲D. Borkowski←▼D. Zeitler

74'▲M. Plath←▼D. Kopacz

FC Ingolstadt 04 substitutes

8Kanurić7Borkowski14Plath18Dühring39Öztürk41Simoni3Decker21Özden31Ham

Manager: T. Stamm

46'▲R. Meißner←▼C. Daferner

46'▲L. Bünning←▼C. Kammerknecht

65'▲P. Heise←▼S. Risch

65'▲J. Marx←▼J. Sterner

85'▲T. Berger←▼A. Casar

Dynamo Dresden substitutes

21Meißner23Bünning16Heise26Marx6Berger37Mesenhöler14Lehmann39Kubatta34Bohdanov