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FC Holzhausen vs Freiburger FC — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC Holzhausen
FC Holzhausen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
P. Schoch 35'
J. Schelb 90'
11/26/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 19Panoramastadion Holzhausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FC Holzhausen50%
×Draw22%
Freiburger FC28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Holzhausen
1.94
Freiburger FC
1.40

FC Holzhausen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 42 away

creates per match

FC Holzhausen
1.82
Freiburger FC
1.12

allows per match

FC Holzhausen
1.68
Freiburger FC
2.07

finishing

FC Holzhausen+0.00on par
Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Holzhausen ↓

Freiburger FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FC Holzhausen or draw
72%
FC Holzhausen or Freiburger FC
78%
Draw or Freiburger FC
50%

Winning margin

FC Holzhausen wins by 2+
28%
Freiburger FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Holzhausen 1+ goals
86%
FC Holzhausen 2+ goals
58%
FC Holzhausen 3+ goals
30%
Freiburger FC 1+ goals
75%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
41%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Holzhausen (draw refunded)
64%
Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Holzhausen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Holzhausen attack 1.82 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.94

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + FC Holzhausen defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Holzhausen scores more
50%
level
22%
Freiburger FC scores more
28%

FC Holzhausen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Holzhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
P. Schoch
90'
J. Schelb

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: FC Holzhausen 1–1 Freiburger FC

FC Holzhausen and Freiburger FC drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on November 26, 2022.

Goals: P. Schoch (35'), J. Schelb (90').

The match was played at Panoramastadion Holzhausen in Sulz am Neckar.