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FC Helsingor vs Middelfart — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

FC Helsingor
FC Helsingor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Middelfart
Middelfart
11/2/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 14Helsingør Ny Stadion OPV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

FC Helsingor43%
×Draw24%
Middelfart33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Helsingor
1.59
Middelfart
1.36

FC Helsingor creates 17% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 56 away

creates per match

FC Helsingor
1.93
Middelfart
1.32

allows per match

FC Helsingor
1.41
Middelfart
1.25

finishing

FC Helsingor+0.00on par
Middelfart+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Helsingor ↓

Middelfart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Helsingor or draw
67%
FC Helsingor or Middelfart
76%
Draw or Middelfart
57%

Winning margin

FC Helsingor wins by 2+
22%
Middelfart wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Helsingor 1+ goals
80%
FC Helsingor 2+ goals
47%
FC Helsingor 3+ goals
21%
Middelfart 1+ goals
74%
Middelfart 2+ goals
39%
Middelfart 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Helsingor (draw refunded)
57%
Middelfart (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Helsingor at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.41 · 41 matches

Middelfart away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Helsingor attack 1.93 + Middelfart defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.59

Middelfart attack 1.32 + FC Helsingor defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Helsingor scores more
43%
level
24%
Middelfart scores more
33%

FC Helsingor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Helsingor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: FC Helsingor 1–1 Middelfart

FC Helsingor and Middelfart drew 1-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Helsingør Ny Stadion OPV in Helsingør.