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FC Helsingor vs Kolding IF — 1. Division 2018

FC Helsingor
FC Helsingor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kolding IF
Kolding IF
3/8/20241. Division1. Division · Round 21Helsingør Ny Stadion OPV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

FC Helsingor39%
×Draw26%
Kolding IF35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Helsingor
1.40
Kolding IF
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 81 away

creates per match

FC Helsingor
1.44
Kolding IF
1.16

allows per match

FC Helsingor
1.44
Kolding IF
1.35

finishing

FC Helsingor+0.00on par
Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Helsingor ↓

Kolding IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Helsingor or draw
65%
FC Helsingor or Kolding IF
74%
Draw or Kolding IF
61%

Winning margin

FC Helsingor wins by 2+
18%
Kolding IF wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Helsingor 1+ goals
75%
FC Helsingor 2+ goals
41%
FC Helsingor 3+ goals
17%
Kolding IF 1+ goals
73%
Kolding IF 2+ goals
37%
Kolding IF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Helsingor (draw refunded)
53%
Kolding IF (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Helsingor at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Helsingor attack 1.44 + Kolding IF defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kolding IF attack 1.16 + FC Helsingor defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Helsingor scores more
39%
level
26%
Kolding IF scores more
35%

FC Helsingor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Helsingor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Helsingor vs Kolding IF

FC Helsingor and Kolding IF drew 1-1 in 1. Division on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Helsingør Ny Stadion OPV in Helsingør.