FC Helsingor 2–2 Hillerød: Result & Stats

FC Helsingor

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Hillerød

4/13/2024

1. Division · Relegation Round - 3Helsingør Ny Stadion OPV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

FC Helsingor39%

×Draw25%

Hillerød37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC HelsingorExpected goals in this matchHillerød

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.46

FC Helsingor

1.50

Hillerød

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 64 away

1.44

creates per match

1.47

1.44

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

FC Helsingor

1.44

Hillerød

1.47

allows per match

FC Helsingor

1.44

Hillerød

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Helsingor+0.00on par

Hillerød+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Helsingor ↓

Hillerød →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FC Helsingor or draw

63%

FC Helsingor or Hillerød

75%

Draw or Hillerød

61%

Winning margin

FC Helsingor wins by 2+

19%

Hillerød wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FC Helsingor 1+ goals

78%

FC Helsingor 2+ goals

44%

FC Helsingor 3+ goals

19%

Hillerød 1+ goals

77%

Hillerød 2+ goals

43%

Hillerød 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FC Helsingor (draw refunded)

51%

Hillerød (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Helsingor at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

Hillerød away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Helsingor attack 1.44 + Hillerød defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hillerød attack 1.47 + FC Helsingor defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Helsingor scores more

39%

level

25%

Hillerød scores more

37%

FC Helsingor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Helsingor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff