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FC Helsingor vs Aarhus Fremad — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

FC Helsingor
FC Helsingor
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
3/15/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 18Helsingør Ny Stadion OPV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

FC Helsingor38%
×Draw24%
Aarhus Fremad38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Helsingor
1.54
Aarhus Fremad
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 80 away

creates per match

FC Helsingor
1.93
Aarhus Fremad
1.65

allows per match

FC Helsingor
1.41
Aarhus Fremad
1.15

finishing

FC Helsingor+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Helsingor ↓

Aarhus Fremad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Helsingor or draw
62%
FC Helsingor or Aarhus Fremad
76%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
62%

Winning margin

FC Helsingor wins by 2+
19%
Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Helsingor 1+ goals
79%
FC Helsingor 2+ goals
45%
FC Helsingor 3+ goals
20%
Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
78%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
45%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

FC Helsingor (draw refunded)
50%
Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Helsingor at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.41 · 41 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Helsingor attack 1.93 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.54

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.65 + FC Helsingor defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Helsingor scores more
38%
level
24%
Aarhus Fremad scores more
38%

FC Helsingor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Helsingor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: FC Helsingor 0–2 Aarhus Fremad

Aarhus Fremad beat FC Helsingor 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Helsingør Ny Stadion OPV in Helsingør.