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FC Helsingor vs Aalborg — 1. Division 2018

FC Helsingor
FC Helsingor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aalborg
Aalborg
8/11/20231. Division1. Division · Round 4Helsingør Ny Stadion OPV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

FC Helsingor36%
×Draw25%
Aalborg39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Helsingor
1.42
Aalborg
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 32 away

creates per match

FC Helsingor
1.44
Aalborg
1.56

allows per match

FC Helsingor
1.44
Aalborg
1.41

finishing

FC Helsingor+0.00on par
Aalborg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Helsingor ↓

Aalborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Helsingor or draw
61%
FC Helsingor or Aalborg
75%
Draw or Aalborg
64%

Winning margin

FC Helsingor wins by 2+
17%
Aalborg wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Helsingor 1+ goals
76%
FC Helsingor 2+ goals
41%
FC Helsingor 3+ goals
17%
Aalborg 1+ goals
78%
Aalborg 2+ goals
44%
Aalborg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Helsingor (draw refunded)
48%
Aalborg (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Helsingor at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

Aalborg away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Helsingor attack 1.44 + Aalborg defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Aalborg attack 1.56 + FC Helsingor defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Helsingor scores more
36%
level
25%
Aalborg scores more
39%

Aalborg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aalborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Helsingor vs Aalborg

FC Helsingor and Aalborg drew 1-1 in 1. Division on August 11, 2023.

The match was played at Helsingør Ny Stadion OPV in Helsingør.