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FC Hatvan vs Tiszafuredi VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

FC Hatvan
FC Hatvan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tiszafuredi VSE
Tiszafuredi VSE
8/31/2025NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 6Népkert-Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

FC Hatvan37%
×Draw24%
Tiszafuredi VSE39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Hatvan
1.51
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 102 away

creates per match

FC Hatvan
1.39
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.45

allows per match

FC Hatvan
1.67
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.64

finishing

FC Hatvan+0.00on par
Tiszafuredi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Hatvan ↓

Tiszafuredi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Hatvan or draw
61%
FC Hatvan or Tiszafuredi VSE
76%
Draw or Tiszafuredi VSE
63%

Winning margin

FC Hatvan wins by 2+
18%
Tiszafuredi VSE wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Hatvan 1+ goals
78%
FC Hatvan 2+ goals
44%
FC Hatvan 3+ goals
19%
Tiszafuredi VSE 1+ goals
79%
Tiszafuredi VSE 2+ goals
46%
Tiszafuredi VSE 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Hatvan (draw refunded)
49%
Tiszafuredi VSE (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Hatvan at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 92 matches

Tiszafuredi VSE away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.64 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Hatvan attack 1.39 + Tiszafuredi VSE defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.51

Tiszafuredi VSE attack 1.45 + FC Hatvan defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Hatvan scores more
37%
level
24%
Tiszafuredi VSE scores more
39%

Tiszafuredi VSE at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tiszafuredi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Hatvan vs Tiszafuredi VSE

Tiszafuredi VSE beat FC Hatvan 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at Népkert-Sporttelep in Hatvan.