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FC Hatvan vs Sényő Carnifex — NB III - Northeast 2019

FC Hatvan
FC Hatvan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sényő Carnifex
Sényő Carnifex
9/8/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 7Népkert-Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

FC Hatvan44%
×Draw23%
Sényő Carnifex33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Hatvan
1.73
Sényő Carnifex
1.48

FC Hatvan creates 17% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 110 away

creates per match

FC Hatvan
1.39
Sényő Carnifex
1.30

allows per match

FC Hatvan
1.67
Sényő Carnifex
2.07

finishing

FC Hatvan+0.00on par
Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Hatvan ↓

Sényő Carnifex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Hatvan or draw
67%
FC Hatvan or Sényő Carnifex
77%
Draw or Sényő Carnifex
56%

Winning margin

FC Hatvan wins by 2+
23%
Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Hatvan 1+ goals
82%
FC Hatvan 2+ goals
52%
FC Hatvan 3+ goals
25%
Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals
77%
Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals
43%
Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Hatvan (draw refunded)
57%
Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Hatvan at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 92 matches

Sényő Carnifex away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Hatvan attack 1.39 + Sényő Carnifex defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.30 + FC Hatvan defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Hatvan scores more
44%
level
23%
Sényő Carnifex scores more
33%

FC Hatvan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Hatvan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: FC Hatvan 1–1 Sényő Carnifex

FC Hatvan and Sényő Carnifex drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Népkert-Sporttelep in Hatvan.