FC Hatvan 2–1 Mezőkövesd II: Result & Stats

FC Hatvan

FT

2 – 1

Mezőkövesd II

8/26/2020

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 6Népkert-Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Hatvan59%

×Draw20%

Mezőkövesd II21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC HatvanExpected goals in this matchMezőkövesd II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.28

FC Hatvan

2.27

Mezőkövesd II

1.28

FC Hatvan creates 77% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 19 away

1.39

creates per match

0.89

1.67

allows per match

3.16

creates per match

FC Hatvan

1.39

Mezőkövesd II

0.89

allows per match

FC Hatvan

1.67

Mezőkövesd II

3.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Hatvan+0.00on par

Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Hatvan ↓

Mezőkövesd II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

FC Hatvan or draw

79%

FC Hatvan or Mezőkövesd II

80%

Draw or Mezőkövesd II

41%

Winning margin

FC Hatvan wins by 2+

37%

Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FC Hatvan 1+ goals

90%

FC Hatvan 2+ goals

66%

FC Hatvan 3+ goals

39%

Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals

72%

Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals

37%

Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Hatvan (draw refunded)

74%

Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Hatvan at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 92 matches

Mezőkövesd II away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Hatvan attack 1.39 + Mezőkövesd II defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 2.27

Mezőkövesd II attack 0.89 + FC Hatvan defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FC Hatvan scores more

59%

level

20%

Mezőkövesd II scores more

21%

FC Hatvan at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FC Hatvan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff