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FC Hatvan vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

FC Hatvan
FC Hatvan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
7/31/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 1Népkert-Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FC Hatvan35%
×Draw24%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Hatvan
1.46
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.60

Hajdúszoboszlói SE creates 10% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 38 away

creates per match

FC Hatvan
1.39
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

allows per match

FC Hatvan
1.67
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

finishing

FC Hatvan+0.00on par
Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Hatvan ↓

Hajdúszoboszlói SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Hatvan or draw
59%
FC Hatvan or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
76%
Draw or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
65%

Winning margin

FC Hatvan wins by 2+
16%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FC Hatvan 1+ goals
77%
FC Hatvan 2+ goals
43%
FC Hatvan 3+ goals
18%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
80%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
47%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Hatvan (draw refunded)
46%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Hatvan at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 92 matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Hatvan attack 1.39 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.53 + FC Hatvan defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Hatvan scores more
35%
level
24%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
41%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hajdúszoboszlói SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: FC Hatvan 1–1 Hajdúszoboszlói SE

FC Hatvan and Hajdúszoboszlói SE drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on July 31, 2022.

The match was played at Népkert-Sporttelep in Hatvan.