FC Hatvan vs Diósgyőr II — NB III - Northeast 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 92+ matches
FC Hatvan39%
Diósgyőr II37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 92 home / 112 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC Hatvan ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC Hatvan at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 92 matches
Diósgyőr II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.70 · 112 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC Hatvan attack 1.39 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.54
Diósgyőr II attack 1.30 + FC Hatvan defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
FC Hatvan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "FC Hatvan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Diósgyőr II substitutes
Kisvárda II
Cigand SE
DEAC
Tiszafuredi VSE
Debrecen II
Tarpa
GödöllőDiósgyőr II
Nyiregyhaza II
Eger
Tiszaújváros
Putnok VSE
Füzesabony
Ózd Sajóvölgye
Sényő CarnifexFC HatvanIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FC Hatvan host Diósgyőr II on Saturday, 22 March 2025 at 13:00. The match is part of the NB III - Northeast 2019/2020 season.
FC Hatvan 1 – 0 Diósgyőr II
FC Hatvan beat Diósgyőr II 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on March 22, 2025.
Goals: D. Karácsony (62' pen).
The match was played at Népkert-Sporttelep in Hatvan.