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FC Halifax Town vs Sutton Utd — League #43 2026

FC Halifax Town
FC Halifax Town
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
2/28/2026League #43League #43

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Halifax Town43%
×Draw25%
Sutton Utd32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Halifax Town
1.52
Sutton Utd
1.29

FC Halifax Town creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 45 away

creates per match

FC Halifax Town
1.83
Sutton Utd
1.24

allows per match

FC Halifax Town
1.33
Sutton Utd
1.20

finishing

FC Halifax Town+0.00on par
Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Halifax Town ↓

Sutton Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Halifax Town or draw
68%
FC Halifax Town or Sutton Utd
75%
Draw or Sutton Utd
57%

Winning margin

FC Halifax Town wins by 2+
21%
Sutton Utd wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Halifax Town 1+ goals
78%
FC Halifax Town 2+ goals
45%
FC Halifax Town 3+ goals
20%
Sutton Utd 1+ goals
72%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
37%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Halifax Town (draw refunded)
57%
Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Halifax Town at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Halifax Town attack 1.83 + Sutton Utd defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sutton Utd attack 1.24 + FC Halifax Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Halifax Town scores more
43%
level
25%
Sutton Utd scores more
32%

FC Halifax Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Halifax Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Halifax Town vs Sutton Utd

FC Halifax Town and Sutton Utd drew 2-2 in League #43 on February 28, 2026.