Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Gutersloh vs Westfalia Herne — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

FC Gutersloh
FC Gutersloh
CANC
14:00
Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
2/21/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 21Heidewaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FC Gutersloh75%
×Draw15%
Westfalia Herne10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gutersloh
2.64
Westfalia Herne
0.84

FC Gutersloh creates 214% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 20 away

creates per match

FC Gutersloh
1.83
Westfalia Herne
0.80

allows per match

FC Gutersloh
0.89
Westfalia Herne
3.45

finishing

FC Gutersloh+0.00on par
Westfalia Herne+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gutersloh ↓

Westfalia Herne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

FC Gutersloh or draw
90%
FC Gutersloh or Westfalia Herne
85%
Draw or Westfalia Herne
25%

Winning margin

FC Gutersloh wins by 2+
54%
Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FC Gutersloh 1+ goals
93%
FC Gutersloh 2+ goals
74%
FC Gutersloh 3+ goals
48%
Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
57%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
21%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Gutersloh (draw refunded)
89%
Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gutersloh at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.89 · 36 matches

Westfalia Herne away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gutersloh attack 1.83 + Westfalia Herne defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 2.64

Westfalia Herne attack 0.80 + FC Gutersloh defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

FC Gutersloh scores more
75%
level
15%
Westfalia Herne scores more
10%

FC Gutersloh at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "FC Gutersloh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Gutersloh host Westfalia Herne

February 21, 2021: FC Gutersloh take on Westfalia Herne in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Gutersloh host Westfalia Herne at Heidewaldstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.