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FC Gutersloh vs TuS Haltern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

FC Gutersloh
FC Gutersloh
CANC
17:00
TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
4/15/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 31Heidewaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FC Gutersloh59%
×Draw21%
TuS Haltern20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gutersloh
2.09
TuS Haltern
1.15

FC Gutersloh creates 82% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 20 away

creates per match

FC Gutersloh
1.83
TuS Haltern
1.40

allows per match

FC Gutersloh
0.89
TuS Haltern
2.35

finishing

FC Gutersloh+0.00on par
TuS Haltern+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gutersloh ↓

TuS Haltern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Gutersloh or draw
80%
FC Gutersloh or TuS Haltern
79%
Draw or TuS Haltern
41%

Winning margin

FC Gutersloh wins by 2+
36%
TuS Haltern wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Gutersloh 1+ goals
88%
FC Gutersloh 2+ goals
62%
FC Gutersloh 3+ goals
34%
TuS Haltern 1+ goals
68%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
32%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Gutersloh (draw refunded)
74%
TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gutersloh at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.89 · 36 matches

TuS Haltern away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gutersloh attack 1.83 + TuS Haltern defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.09

TuS Haltern attack 1.40 + FC Gutersloh defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FC Gutersloh scores more
59%
level
21%
TuS Haltern scores more
20%

FC Gutersloh at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FC Gutersloh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Gutersloh face TuS Haltern (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with FC Gutersloh hosting TuS Haltern. Match starts April 15, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Gutersloh host TuS Haltern at Heidewaldstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.