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FC Gutersloh vs Hessen Kassel — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Gutersloh
FC Gutersloh
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hessen Kassel
Hessen Kassel
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasenplatz SZ Süd FC Güteresloh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Gutersloh32%
×Draw22%
Hessen Kassel46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gutersloh
1.59
Hessen Kassel
1.96

Hessen Kassel creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

FC Gutersloh
1.89
Hessen Kassel
1.80

allows per match

FC Gutersloh
2.11
Hessen Kassel
1.30

finishing

FC Gutersloh+0.00on par
Hessen Kassel+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gutersloh ↓

Hessen Kassel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

FC Gutersloh or draw
54%
FC Gutersloh or Hessen Kassel
78%
Draw or Hessen Kassel
68%

Winning margin

FC Gutersloh wins by 2+
15%
Hessen Kassel wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

FC Gutersloh 1+ goals
80%
FC Gutersloh 2+ goals
47%
FC Gutersloh 3+ goals
21%
Hessen Kassel 1+ goals
86%
Hessen Kassel 2+ goals
58%
Hessen Kassel 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

FC Gutersloh (draw refunded)
41%
Hessen Kassel (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gutersloh at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

Hessen Kassel away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gutersloh attack 1.89 + Hessen Kassel defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.59

Hessen Kassel attack 1.80 + FC Gutersloh defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Gutersloh scores more
32%
level
22%
Hessen Kassel scores more
46%

Hessen Kassel at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hessen Kassel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: FC Gutersloh 3–2 Hessen Kassel

FC Gutersloh beat Hessen Kassel 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz SZ Süd FC Güteresloh in Gütersloh.