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FC Gutersloh vs Hammer SpVg — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

FC Gutersloh
FC Gutersloh
CANC
13:00
Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
4/5/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 29Heidewaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Gutersloh65%
×Draw20%
Hammer SpVg15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gutersloh
2.15
Hammer SpVg
0.92

FC Gutersloh creates 134% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 19 away

creates per match

FC Gutersloh
1.83
Hammer SpVg
0.95

allows per match

FC Gutersloh
0.89
Hammer SpVg
2.47

finishing

FC Gutersloh+0.00on par
Hammer SpVg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gutersloh ↓

Hammer SpVg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Gutersloh or draw
85%
FC Gutersloh or Hammer SpVg
80%
Draw or Hammer SpVg
35%

Winning margin

FC Gutersloh wins by 2+
41%
Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FC Gutersloh 1+ goals
88%
FC Gutersloh 2+ goals
63%
FC Gutersloh 3+ goals
36%
Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
60%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
23%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Gutersloh (draw refunded)
81%
Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gutersloh at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.89 · 36 matches

Hammer SpVg away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gutersloh attack 1.83 + Hammer SpVg defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.15

Hammer SpVg attack 0.95 + FC Gutersloh defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

FC Gutersloh scores more
65%
level
20%
Hammer SpVg scores more
15%

FC Gutersloh at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "FC Gutersloh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Gutersloh face Hammer SpVg (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with FC Gutersloh hosting Hammer SpVg. Match starts April 5, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Gutersloh host Hammer SpVg at Heidewaldstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.