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FC Grimma vs Magdeburg II — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

FC Grimma
FC Grimma
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Magdeburg II
Magdeburg II
11/11/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 13Husarensportpark Grimma Hauptplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

FC Grimma25%
×Draw21%
Magdeburg II55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Grimma
1.42
Magdeburg II
2.19

Magdeburg II creates 54% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 30 away

creates per match

FC Grimma
1.70
Magdeburg II
2.73

allows per match

FC Grimma
1.65
Magdeburg II
1.13

finishing

FC Grimma+0.00on par
Magdeburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Grimma ↓

Magdeburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

FC Grimma or draw
45%
FC Grimma or Magdeburg II
79%
Draw or Magdeburg II
75%

Winning margin

FC Grimma wins by 2+
11%
Magdeburg II wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

FC Grimma 1+ goals
76%
FC Grimma 2+ goals
41%
FC Grimma 3+ goals
17%
Magdeburg II 1+ goals
89%
Magdeburg II 2+ goals
64%
Magdeburg II 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

FC Grimma (draw refunded)
31%
Magdeburg II (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Grimma at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

Magdeburg II away — creates 2.73, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Grimma attack 1.70 + Magdeburg II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Magdeburg II attack 2.73 + FC Grimma defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC Grimma scores more
25%
level
21%
Magdeburg II scores more
55%

Magdeburg II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Magdeburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Grimma vs Magdeburg II

Magdeburg II beat FC Grimma 5-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Husarensportpark Grimma Hauptplatz in Grimma.