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FC Grimma vs Ludwigsfelde — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

FC Grimma
FC Grimma
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
4/1/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 26Husarensportpark Grimma Hauptplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

FC Grimma50%
×Draw23%
Ludwigsfelde27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Grimma
1.83
Ludwigsfelde
1.30

FC Grimma creates 41% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 50 away

creates per match

FC Grimma
1.70
Ludwigsfelde
0.96

allows per match

FC Grimma
1.65
Ludwigsfelde
1.96

finishing

FC Grimma+0.00on par
Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Grimma ↓

Ludwigsfelde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Grimma or draw
73%
FC Grimma or Ludwigsfelde
77%
Draw or Ludwigsfelde
50%

Winning margin

FC Grimma wins by 2+
28%
Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Grimma 1+ goals
84%
FC Grimma 2+ goals
54%
FC Grimma 3+ goals
28%
Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
73%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
37%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Grimma (draw refunded)
65%
Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Grimma at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

Ludwigsfelde away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Grimma attack 1.70 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.96 + FC Grimma defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Grimma scores more
50%
level
23%
Ludwigsfelde scores more
27%

FC Grimma at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Grimma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Grimma vs Ludwigsfelde

FC Grimma beat Ludwigsfelde 3-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Husarensportpark Grimma Hauptplatz in Grimma.